Federal Debt Climbs Past Annual GDP


Saturday January 14th, 2012   •   Posted by Emily Skarbek at 7:54am PDT   •   10 Comments

I could not resist posting this beautiful graph of the current state of the momentousness US debt. The graph is particularly useful for eyeballing the historical path of U.S. debt to GDP. Often pundits will say that our current debt-to-GDP ratio is not unreasonable because it is not too high relative to the period following WWII and the Great Depression.

It is true that during the post-WWII era, government spending exceeded GDP. Never mind that FDR’s New Deal actually prolonged the Great Depression, and ignore the fact that despite conventional wisdom, World War II did nothing to create prosperity. As Bob Higgs has argued extensively, no amount of money pumped into a depressed economy can bring about genuine economic recovery unless investors and business leaders feel secure in their property rights.

But getting back to the graph above. This graph clearly shows that even if the US debt-to-GDP ratio is lower than it was at some previous point in history—the MAGNITUDE of the change is worthy of serious attention. Since the 1980s, the effects of a shift toward a dominant Keynesian view of economic policy are clear. The “old time fiscal religion” was gone and the debts began to pile up.

Make no mistake. With the Keynesian deficit finance comes a rhetoric that in good times the budget eventually should be brought into balance (See section 8.4.35). Only not now, the Keynesians argue. Now is a time of crisis. Now is different. When the economy is “doing well,” “recovered,” or when war is over... then the enlightened statemen will know what is prudent and begin running surpluses to pay the debts.

The fatal flaw? These arguments turn a blind eye to the basic incentives facing politicians. If they spend more on their special interests, they get elected. If they cut spending on special interests or constituents, the don’t get elected. So don’t be surprised to hear our presidential candidates pay lip service to fixing the debt. That’s what they do. That’s how they’ll get elected. And without rules to change the incentives and limit the ability of statemen to spend, the red line is going to continue to go up.

Featured Image:
From http://www.taxbrackets.org


10 Responses to “Federal Debt Climbs Past Annual GDP”

  1. [...] Federal Debt Climbs Past Annual GDP | MyGovCost | Government … Sponsered Links Further Readingxpostfactoid: On leveraged debt [...]

  2. [...] Federal Debt Climbs Past Annual GDP Saturday January 14th, 2012   •   Posted by Emily Skarbekat 7:54am PST   •   1 Comment [...]

  3. David Gray says:

    I would like to see this chart adjusted for inflation AND adjusted for population; i.e., on a per capita basis.

  4. David Corry says:

    There is another component to all of this that seems to be ignored by everyone. Our forefathers had the advantage of vast resources provided by the Land. Until relatively recently, someone who was down and out could go out and get their next meal by hunting, gathering, or growing food. Try to do that now, you will go to jail. If you wanted something out of the ground, you dug it up. Now, you go to jail. If you invented something (in your house or barn that you built) you went out and used it. Now, it all has to be approved, licensed, permitted, etc. or you go to jail. Our government was designed to insure our freedoms. What freedoms are left? The government owns the land even if you hold its title. The politicians are in control of virtually everything including OUR Constitution. We are buying resources from other countries while being told by the politicians that we have no choice. Yes, we do! We still have the freedom to think for ourselves, though it seems most people are gladly giving that up, too, because it’s easier to let someone else; anyone else; to think for them. We went to the Moon 40 years ago then we just sort-of gave up. What has happened to the land of the free and the home of the brave?

  5. Trisha says:

    What I want to know–and most everyone I know wants to know–is to whom do we owe this gargantuan debt. Who is holding the mortgage and is eventually going to foreclose on us? How much is each financier holding and what has been put up as guarantee of re-payment? Have the “powers that be” in our government put up our land as collateral and like Greece we will start turning our land over to our creditors? What’s going to happen if we can’t turn things around?

  6. RJ Miller says:

    “I could not resist posting this beautiful graph...”

    Clear and colorful as it may be, I am not sure that “beautiful” is the proper way to describe it.

    If anything this graph is so hideous it makes Janet Reno look decades younger than she really is.

    Wish I could ask opponents of spending cuts their guess on what the optimum level of spending in each area of the Federal budget would be and why.

    I would bet that every justification for spending increases is ad hoc, circumstances appear less than optimal so therefore the government must not be doing enough.

    Not too many people argued that Clinton was spending too little in his day, yet any attempt to go back to his level of spending would be interpreted as being anti-education/defense/healthcare/retirement/whatever area of spending would be cut.

  7. Mike Bishop says:

    It’s interesting that the largest spikes in our national debt occurred during the administrations of Ronald Reagan (R) in the early 80′s and George W. Bush (R) in the early 2000′s.

    Republicans frequently paint Democrats as the “tax and spend” party, but they appear to be the “cut taxes and spend anyway” party. Too bad their partisan sheep don’t recognize this simple truth.

  8. Wayne says:

    Mike, The largest spike has been since Barack Obama added $5 trillion to the $10.5 trillion debt. Just the other day he is adding another $1.2 trillion. You really need to re-think your statement. Have some integrity.

  9. Isamar says:

    From the description above: Like all government spending, the Treasury would credit the reserve accounts held by the commercial bank at the central bank. The commercial bank in question would be where the target of the spending had an account. So the commercial bank’s assets rise and its liabilities also increase because a deposit would be made.” But the commercial banks net position would be zero in this case because the current and future value of its assets and liabilities would always be equal. What you failed to include is that no commercial bank would participate in this arrangement because it would be nonprofitable. In the case of bond issuance, as long as the yield curve is sloped positively, a commercial bank can borrow short from the fed’s discount window (or from non-interest bearing deposits) to buy longer dated debt and pocket the difference. The U. S. Treasury does not issue debt for the explicit reason of maintaining an interest rate target. If they did then they would never need to issue marketable debt and there would be no reason for federal reserve open market operations. The U. S. Treasury sells debt to finance the budget deficit. The federal reserve does not require marketable government debt to hit an interest rate target. They could just as easily announce what the discount window rate is going to be without any buying or selling of liabilities (government or otherwise). Also, on inflation:“ Funding deficits with debt issuing is less inflationary in the future: The mainstream believes this on the basis of a plethora of elaborate and purely theoretical models that bluntly contradict the actual historical record, and range from the ridiculous to the truly bizzare.” From the equation of exchange: Debt * Velocity = Real GDP * (1 + Inflation Rate) Productivity = Real GDP / Debt. If we let productivity and velocity be our exogenous variables Inflation Rate = Velocity / Productivity – And so inflation is caused by productivity not growing as fast as money velocity. Why might that happen? Because a government or an individual enterprise (or both) may decide that non-productive ventures (like wars and commodity speculation both financed with debt) are “ good ideas”.

  10. John says:

    What person in their right mind would fund a business that is this poorly run? So is the true answer to just send more money in form of taxes so this crazy spending will continue or say no and say stop your foolish spending, make the necessary cuts to government and programs before all Americans are in the poor house regardless of their current income bracket.

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