The Right Frame of Reference for Judging the Current Level of Federal Spending


Wednesday May 18th, 2011   •   Posted by Craig Eyermann at 9:38am PDT   •   1 Comment

How does today’s U.S. federal government spending compare to the levels recorded before the recession?

That’s an important question to ask because a lot of politicians and bureaucrats have a pretty large stake in keeping federal spending at elevated levels. How elevated those current levels of spending are with respect to what was typically recorded in the ten years before the most recent recession began is the subject of our data visualization exercise today!

How Does Today's Level of Federal Government Spending Compare to the Pre-Recession Levels of Spending from 1998-2007?

In the chart above, we’ve shown the current (2011) level of federal spending for discretionary expenditures, such as Defense, Welfare and Miscellaneous Spending, in which we’ve covered all remaining discretionary expenditures, as a percent share of GDP. We’ve done the same for the big three “mandatory” expenditure categories of Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare, all of which can technically be controlled by Congressional action.

Against those current levels of spending, we’ve shown what the average level of federal government spending was for these expenditures as a percent share of GDP for the period from 1998 through 2007, in addition to indicating the full range of values recorded for each category during those ten years with the vertical black bars shown for each category.

The only expenditure category we’ve omitted from the chart above is Net Interest on the National Debt, since that’s really the only genuinely “mandatory” expenditure of the U.S. federal government. Failing to make these particular payments would place the United States into default, particularly for payments owed to foreign interests.

The period of 1998 through 2007 makes for a very nice comparison because it contains both a period of time in which the U.S. government ran budget surpluses (1998-2001), a period of recession with an extended period of recovery (2001-2003), and also a period of time where the government ran what were considered for the time to be record high budget deficits (2002-2007). Oh, and this period also includes the defense spending recorded for supporting two wars (Afghanistan and Iraq).

Oh for those days! We suppose a good question for those politicians seeking to keep the federal government’s spending so permanently high is why shouldn’t the U.S. go back to those levels of spending recorded from 1998 through 2007, which just about everybody else in the world would call “normal” or even “excessive” levels of spending for the U.S.?

Data Source

White House Office of Management and Budget. Budget of the U.S. Government, Historical Tables, Fiscal Year 2012, Tables 1.2 and 3.1. Accessed 17 May 2011.



One Response to “The Right Frame of Reference for Judging the Current Level of Federal Spending”

  1. Joe Conservative says:

    These are informative but it is even more meaningful to show total dollars and how many percent higher spending is now compared to pre-recession.

    Defense is 46% higher,
    Welfare: 49%,
    Social Security: 16%,
    Medicaid: 44%,
    Medicare: 18%, and
    miscellaneous spending is up by 47%.

    How can this be afforded?
    How can this be justified?
    How can this be explained as appropriate?

    This is an economy crusher, pure and simple.

    This is punishing the country under the guise of it being for our own good. It isn’t. It is a push toward collectivism, away from individualism, and if spending this society into bankruptcy succeeds, elites will rule a crippled society, and we will become beholden to government for everything, turning to them for scraps of kindness, tidbits of benevolence, and you will be unable to retain any of your own money, even though you earned it. You will owe it in taxes to the collective, for redistribution to those people whom the Federal (then tyrannical) government sees fit. The Constitution will become a dead document, ignored and cast onto the cobweb-covered pile of forgotten freedoms. That is what a health care mandate does, because the Federal Government decides who will get what treatment, not you, not your doctor, not your free-market-chosen insurance company, a company that should be efficient because it competes with others for your business, your subscription.

    The Republican Party is the only place to turn, but that party has to be watched like a hawk, and not allowed to ignore these problems. Conservative politicians must be elected NOW, from the presidency on down, and then they MUST be kept on track by people in everyday life, yes, by YOU and ME, to reduce the size of government, reduce and streamline Federal taxes, reduce restrictive regulations on business, and rein in spending to BELOW the IRS revenue so we can reduce the National Debt. Not one politician I have heard speak compares Federal spending with Federal REVENUES. INcome versus OUTgo. This is basic. You don’t have to be a hoity-toity economist to “get” that. You just need to use common sense and just a little personal responsibility. We do this in our personal lives, in our businesses, and need to have our Federal Government, OUR elected officials, do the SAME. They work for you. But they work for me, too. They work for all of us, and should do so equally. They were not elected to implement “social justice” or the “fundamental transformation” (which is in truth nothing but insane overspending and the unfair redistribution of wealth to create a soft tyranny, a ditch too deep to escape) that is causing the pains we are now suffering. Never forget that.

    COMMUNICATE with your elected officials, from local to State to Federal, to your Representatives, Senators, even the Executive branch, and tell them you need them to become a more efficient and more Constitutional employee, your and my employee. We often appear too small to be considered from those lofty perches. We must not let that happen, lest we lose this wonderful country, the last best country on Earth.

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