Comments on: Forecasting the Future http://www.mygovcost.org/2013/06/02/forecasting-the-future/ Thu, 20 Jun 2013 07:33:52 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.2.2 By: Politics Debunked http://www.mygovcost.org/2013/06/02/forecasting-the-future/comment-page-1/#comment-107166 Tue, 04 Jun 2013 18:53:57 +0000 http://www.mygovcost.org/?p=7838#comment-107166 On the topic of forecast accuracy for CBO, a report the Federal Reserve published last year examined the last few decades of CBO deficit projections and found (where RW=”random walk”, i.e random guessing):

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/12/01/21-40Kliesen.pdf
“”the CBO’s cumulative 5-year projections are considerably worse than projections from the RW model; […]the deficit projections beyond a year were unreliable. Importantly, we found that the projections were biased in the direction of underprojecting the size of the deficit or overprojecting the size of the surplus.””

It is likely that other government projections are also off. This page looks at an annual report from the Social Security administration pointing out many flaws in their claimed future forecasts:

http://www.politicsdebunked.com/article-list/ssaestimates

]]> By: Forecasting the Future | lessbull.com http://www.mygovcost.org/2013/06/02/forecasting-the-future/comment-page-1/#comment-106800 Mon, 03 Jun 2013 06:25:13 +0000 http://www.mygovcost.org/?p=7838#comment-106800 […] View full post on MyGovCost | Government Cost Calculator […]

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